Continued improvement in Amlin syndicate forecasts
15 November 2004
Amlin, the leading Lloyd’s insurer, today updated its Syndicate 2001 forecasts for the 2002 and 2003 years of account and commented on current trading as set out below.
Current trading
Trading conditions remained good through the third quarter. Syndicate 2001’s gross written premium income (net of brokerage) for the nine months to 30 September 2004 was £690 million (at rates $1.81:£1). This compares to £667 million for the same period in the previous year, net of quota share reinsurance and converted at the same exchange rate.
The average renewal rate reduction for the year to 30 September was 3%, weighted across Syndicate 2001’s premium by business class.
Amlin’s estimate of the gross and net ultimate claims arising from Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne together with Typhoon Songda remains unchanged from that announced on 8th October 2004. Amlin continues to believe that the impact of these losses on the industry will lead to reduced downward pressure on rates in 2005.
Syndicate 2001 Forecasts
Syndicate 2001's forecasts for the 2002 and 2003 years of account, which are expressed below as a percentage of capacity after standard personal expenses, have both improved.
| Year of account | Capacity £m | Amlin plc share % | Current forecasts | Previous forecasts |
| 2002 | 800 | 72.3 | 17% to 22% | 16% to 21% |
| 2003 | 1000 | 86.0 | 14% to 19% | 12.5% to 17.5% |
Both years of account have continued to develop well. The hurricane and typhoon losses have been largely borne by the 2004 year of account but, for Amlin plc, these will be significantly offset by the improvements in the 2002 and 2003 years of account. The 2002 and 2003 years have continued to experience low levels of claims activity. Amlin expects the forecasts to continue to improve if a normal level of loss development is experienced.
The forecasts also benefited from strong investment returns in the third quarter from syndicate investment portfolios. The total of syndicate assets available for investment at 30 September was £1.2 billion and a return of approximately 1.9% was achieved in the third quarter.
Charles Philipps, Chief Executive added, “We are confident that Amlin will deliver another good result in 2004. Given the extreme hurricane activity in the year, our overall performance reflects the value of our diversity, our prudent approach to risk management and our sound business model”.
Enquiries:
Charles Philipps 0207 746 1000
Richard Hextall 0207 746 1000
Hannah Bale 0207 746 1118
Amlin plc
David Haggie 0207 417 8989
Haggie Financial Limited
