Third quarter syndicate forecasts
24 November 2003
Amlin plc, the leading Lloyd’s insurer, today releases its third quarter forecasts for the 2001 and 2002 years of account for Syndicate 2001. It also comments on current trading as set out below.
Charles Philipps, Chief Executive, commented “I am pleased with the progress we are making. Trading conditions remain positive and we have continued to benefit from low loss incidence in the year to date.”
Current trading
Underwriting
Amlin continues to experience good trading conditions with Syndicate 2001 recording gross written premiums (net of brokerage) in the first 9 months of 2003 of £743 million, 18% up on 2002 at the same stage. Amlin’s share of this is 86.2%. Rating conditions have remained strong in most lines of business and Amlin believes that the outlook for 2004 underwriting conditions is good.
The fourth quarter of the year is the main airline renewal season. Experience to date in the current renewal season suggests that rates are stabilising at acceptable levels.
Claims experience continues to be good, illustrated by Syndicate 2001’s incurred claims ratio (gross paid and notified claims as a percent of gross premiums, net of brokerage):
| Gross incurred claims ratio | |||
| at 9 months | at 21 months | at 33 months | 2000 account* | 19.9% | 62.0% | 75.7% |
| 2001 account* | 27.6% | 47.8% | 58.2% | 2002 account | 12.7% | 36.2% | 2003 account | 12.0% |
* excluding 11 September terrorist losses
Catastrophe loss incidence continues to be low. The loss experience from the principal catastrophe losses since June (Hurricane Fabian, Hurricane Isabel and the California Fires) is well within our business planning expectations.
Forecasts
The third quarter forecasts for the 2001 and 2002 years of account, which are expressed as a percentage of capacity, are as follows:
| Year of account | Capacity £m | % owned | Latest forecast % to % | Previous forecast % to % |
| 2001 | 574.5 | 69.6 | (1.5) to 3.5 | (1.5) to 3.5 |
| 2000 | 800.0 | 72.3 | 13.5 to 18.5 | 12.0 to 17.0 |
The improvement in the 2002 account forecast reflects the continued low loss incidence described above and a reduction in remaining live exposure on business written in 2002. Amlin expects that the forecast will continue to improve if a normal level of loss development is experienced through the remainder of the year.
Enquiries:
Charles Philipps 020 7746 1000
Richard Hextall 020 7746 1000
Amlin plc
Peter Rigby 020 7417 8989
Haggie Financial
