Syndicate Forecasts
26 November 2002
Amlin Underwriting Limited, the leading managing agency owned by Amlin plc, has updated its forecasts in respect of the 2000 and 2001 years of account.
Current trading
Trading conditions for the year to date have been strong and market conditions suggest that this will continue for at least the next year.
Gross written premium income for Syndicate 2001 (net of brokerage) in the first ten months of 2002 was £705 million, an increase of 52% over the gross written premium at the same stage in 2001, of £463 million.
The low level of loss incidence reported at June has continued through the year to date. Syndicate 2001’s overall gross incurred loss ratio for the 2002 year of account as at 30 September stood at 12.6%. This compares to a gross incurred loss ratio for the 2001 year of account, at the same stage in 2001, of 27.7% (excluding 11 September losses).
Syndicate 2001
The latest forecasts for the 2000 and 2001 years of account, both including and excluding the estimated effects of 11 September 2001 terrorist losses, are set out below. They are expressed as a percentage of capacity and after standard Name’s expenses including agent’s fees and commission.
Current Forecast |
Previous Forecast |
|||||
| Year of account | Capacity £m | Amlin Share | Including 11 September |
Excluding 11 September |
Including 11 September |
Excluding 11 September |
| % | % to % | % to % | ||||
| 2001 | 574.5 | 69.6 | (4.0) to 1.0 | 10.5 to 15.5 | (6.0) to (1.0) | 8.8 to 13.8 |
| 2002 | 423.4 | 55.8 | (4.0) to 1.0 | (1.0) to 4.0 | (4.0) to 1.0 | (1.0) to 4.0 |
Syndicate 2001 has continued to experience improvement in its underlying performance for the 2001 year of account. This year was adversely affected by losses from the 11 September terrorist events as previously announced. The estimated impact of these events is largely unchanged during the quarter, based on the assumptions set out in the 31 December 2001 accounts.
Discontinued Syndicates
Amlin’s principal syndicate trading in 2000 was Syndicate 2001. Syndicates 902 and 1141 ceased to trade in 2000.
Syndicate 1141 continued to experience greater than normal loss development in the third quarter and the forecasts have been adjusted to reflect this development. The impact of Syndicate 1141’s movements on Amlin plc’s financial performance is expected to be more than offset by improvements in Syndicate 2001.
| Syndicate No | Capacity £m | % owned by Amlin | Latest Forecasts % to % |
Previous Forecast % to % |
| 902 | 37.6 | 56.7% | (32.5) to (27.5) | (32.5) to (27.5) |
| 1141 | 76.3 | 69.7% | (43.0) to (38.0) | (35.0) to (30.0) |
Charles Philipps, Chief Executive of Amlin, commented:
“The improving picture from the 2001 year, combined with the very strong trading conditions experienced in the year to date, are encouraging signs for our performance this year and next”.
Enquiries:
Amlin plc:
Charles Philipps 020 7746 1050
Chief Executive
Richard Hextall 020 7746 1054
Finance Director
Haggie Financial:
David Haggie 020 7417 8989
